Mr Gerald Giam Yean Song (Aljunied): Mr Chairman, the Government has clarified that it does not aim for Singapore’s population to increase to 10 million, and it is anticipating a population of significantly below 6.9 million by 2030. However, with 2030 only six years away and fast approaching, a key question arises – what are the Government’s longer-term forecasts?
Population projections are a critical tool for public policy planning. Given current birth rates and the intake of new citizens and Permanent Residents (PRs), what are the Government’s projections for Singapore’s population in 2040 and 2050? These figures are pivotal not just for immediate policy adjustments, but for securing a sustainable future for all.
The Government claims that it does not seek to achieve any particular population size. I find this rather strange. If there is no population target, how does it decide how much to regulate the immigration tap or how much to invest in pro-natalist policies to achieve its desired economic, social and security outcomes over the long term?
The Minister, Prime Minister’s Office (Ms Indranee Rajah): Mr Gerald Giam asked about our population projections and how we plan our population policies.
As indicated at last year’s Committee of Supply, our total population is likely to be below 6.9 million by 2030. This planning parameter remains relevant for the 2030s. Beyond that, our population size will depend on various demographic trends, such as birth rates, life expectancies, deaths and migration; as well as future social and economic needs. In planning for the longer-term, we develop various scenarios to ensure that we are adequately prepared for a range of possible outcomes, rather than focus on a single number.
In all scenarios, however, supporting marriage and parenthood remains a fundamental priority. We have been and will continue to invest heavily in families as this is an existential issue for us.
Also, our efforts to raise fertility will take time to show results. A carefully managed immigration policy is hence an important supporting measure to moderate the impact of low birth rates and an ageing population on our society and economy.
The Chairman: Mr Gerald Giam.
Mr Gerald Giam Yean Song: Sir, I thank the Minister for her response to my questions. The Minister, if I heard right, said that the population projections by 2050 will depend on trends in fertility and longevity. I understand there might be some concerns about publicly revealing population projections but does the Government have any internal projections for the population in 2040 and 2050 based on the different scenarios? Because in 2013, I recall that the Government was able to project our population until 2030. Now, in 2024, why is it not possible to project it until at least 2040?
Ms Indranee Rajah: The difference really is that planning for the future has become a lot more complex. There are a lot more variables. It is not like when Singapore was first starting off and you have a clear trajectory and you can say that there is this projection. So, having one particular figure does not really help because you would have a range of scenarios. That is what I was trying to explain just now.
Essentially, there are birth rates, TFR, we have just seen that it has fallen to an all-time low, life expectancy, deaths, migrations. So, basically, for the Ministries to plan, they have to plan on a range of scenarios and not all of them will plan on the same variables. For example, if it is public housing, you would just look at Singaporeans, when you plan your BTOs. But, obviously, if you are looking at some other things, then you would take into account the foreigners who work here as well.
One of the strategies we have for this is modular planning. So, for example, if you were building something like T5, you do not have to build the whole thing straightaway to take into account a very large number that is coming through. You would build stage one and then if it looks like you are having more traffic, then you can build stage two. We apply some of that when we are planning for public housing, for transport. So, having one particular figure does not really address the issue. I think for the agencies, they are learning over the years, to plan within a range of scenarios.
Prime Minister’s Office
28 February 2024
https://sprs.parl.gov.sg/search/#/sprs3topic?reportid=budget-2344
Office of the Leader of the Opposition 