Mr Dennis Tan Lip Fong (Hougang): The demand for AI, especially generative AI, has been increasing exponentially in the past two years. With this comes a staggering increase in the energy intensity and by extension, carbon emissions intensity of AI-related activities. The Government should look into regulating the carbon footprint of the use and development of AI.
To put things in perspective, just one query with ChatGPT uses up to 10 times as much energy as a Google search query, enough to power a light bulb for 20 minutes. Generating a single image using an AI model can take as much energy as fully charging a smartphone, thousands of times more energy-intensive than generating text.
However, not all AI models are the same. Using large general-purpose models, such as large language models like ChatGPT can consume up to 30 times more energy than a smaller model created specifically for the task. The issue arises when companies of different sizes rush to integrate general purpose AI into their products and services, leading to such general-purpose AI models being deployed in an indiscriminate manner millions, if not billions, of times a day for tasks that users do not require the use of general-purpose AI, thereby causing emissions to add up quickly.
I would like to ask the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) if there is an estimate of how Singapore’s energy demand, especially for industries, may increase with a push for widespread adoption of AI. As Singapore is positioning itself to become an AI hub, as well as a data centre hub, has this been taken into consideration in the 2035 NDC commitments?
The Government should start to look into developing voluntary guidelines and eventually mandating the reporting of energy consumptions by AI models. This has already been recommended by the United Nations Environmental Programme and governments, including those in United States (US) and the EU, are actively discussing similar regulations. This would encourage developers to explore and adopt energy-efficient practices to reduce the carbon intensity of their products. AI developers will be pushed to use smaller task-specific AI models instead of large general-purpose models.
Such regulation would also have ripple effects within the AI ecosystem. Like the sustainability reporting landscape, there will be increased demand for products and services that help support such disclosures. Data centres in Singapore may start looking at developing hardware that can more easily show AI developers their energy consumption. There will be greater innovation. Downstream businesses would also be more discerning about the AI models they adopt, taking into account their energy consumption and emissions. By being an early adopter of such regulations, Singapore can enable local AI developers and related businesses to integrate carbon conscious practices early and stay ahead as global demand for sustainable AI solutions grows.
The Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security (Mr Teo Chee Hean): Mr Chairman, Sir, I speak as Chairman of the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC), which coordinates our policy and measures across all sectors. And with your permission, Sir, I will take clarifications immediately after this speech.
I would like to thank our hon Members, Ms Poh, Ms He, Mr Tan, Dr Lim and also Miss Chan, for their interest in this subject, which has a very long-term bearing on Singapore’s development and growth.
Sir, it is a difficult time to talk about climate action. The Paris Agreement in 2015 marked a breakthrough in global climate action, with countries pledging to keep global warming within 1.5°C. Although there has been unevenness in implementation, we were generally pulling in the same direction as a global community.
However, the US has recently pulled out of the Paris Agreement, for the second time. This has prompted other countries, like Argentina and Indonesia, for example, to question the wisdom of maintaining their climate commitments. Dr Lim Wee Kiak has asked how these global developments will affect Singapore’s climate goals. It is quite natural for countries to ask why they should continue to make these difficult changes when others are not and whether their efforts will even result in any meaningful change, without the participation of bigger players.
Singapore’s Climate Ambassador, Mr Ravi Menon, gave a speech a week ago at Temasek’s Ecosperity Conversations. It provides a succinct and clear assessment of the global state of play on climate change, and I recommend that Members read it. Ambassador Menon points out that the main drivers of climate action are politics, economics and nature. I have touched on the political headwinds. So, let us examine the other two.
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First, the economics. Green technology has advanced dramatically in the last two decades. Several of these technologies are now mature and mainstream, and make economic sense. They are not just cleaner but lower cost. The average levelised cost of solar energy globally, for instance, is now 50% lower than that of fossil fuels. This explains why two-thirds of global energy investment in 2024 went to clean energy technologies and infrastructure.
Countries and businesses realise this, which is why despite political perturbations, there is now much greater momentum for decarbonisation than just a decade ago. Most of the world’s advanced economies have been investing in decarbonisation and steadily reducing emissions. They recognise that the green transition is an increasingly important driver of growth and therefore crucial not just to the health of the globe, but also to the prosperity of their people.
This brings us to nature. Climate change is no longer a future threat. It is already here, with us. Every country, all of us, can see this – drought, fires, floods, loss of crop yields, more severe storms. The last 10 years have been the hottest years ever on record. In short, the timeline to respond and adapt is being set, not by us, mere humans, but by nature.
Countries and businesses which lag behind will be forced to act eventually. The longer they wait, the sharper and more disruptive a transition they will have to make. This is why Singapore remains fully committed to effective climate action. We want to put ourselves in the best possible position for the long-term challenge and the opportunities that arise.
Earlier this month, Singapore submitted our 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We are among just 13 countries to do so on time, out of a total of 195 countries. We have committed to reducing our emissions to between 45 and 50 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2035.
Our 2035 NDC is an ambitious commitment. It builds on our previous target to peak and then reduce emissions to 60 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030. Forty-five million tonnes keeps us on a straight-line trajectory from 60 million tonnes in 2030 down to net zero by 2050, aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
It is heartening that Members from both sides of this House have expressed support for our ambitious climate action plan and in particular, this downward trajectory of emissions, which is going to be a major challenge.
Our 2035 NDC also signals our resolve to help our economy stay competitive in a low-carbon world. Having an ambitious target generates demand for new green investments and gives Singapore-based companies an edge in developing new low-carbon solutions. It also allows us to remain attractive to companies that are looking to decarbonise their operations, which are aligned with our own national goals.
At the same time, as an alternative-energy disadvantaged nation, having a target range reflects the practical reality that our pace of decarbonisation depends heavily on technological developments and international collaboration. This range also recognises that we need some flexibility to manage the impact on our households and businesses while aligning with the pace of transition in the rest of the world.
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The next question is how to help our businesses transition to this new economy.
Ms Poh Li San, Mr Dennis Tan and Ms He Ting Ru asked about costs, opportunities and the circular economy. Ms He, in particular, talked about consumption-based emissions versus production-based emissions. I should explain that currently, the world operates on a production-based emissions system. The entire United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) architecture is based around that. This is the way that we count, officially, carbon emissions for each country. And also, the methodologies for this are very well developed.
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For consumption-based emissions, the methodologies are not standardised and they are not widely applied. And in any case, they will not be directly applicable to our carbon account under the Paris Agreement.
But we are encouraging companies to start accounting for these things because, eventually, if carbon emission costs around the world rise, this will affect them also through their supply chain. So, they ought to know where their supply chain risks are. We are working with the Singapore Business Federation (SBF) and a consortium of partners to launch the Singapore Emission Factors Registry. This helps businesses in Singapore track and report their carbon emissions more accurately by using a database of emissions factors developed based on Singapore’s context. Prior to this, most Singapore businesses had to rely on emission factors from international sources for emissions reporting, especially for Scope 3 emissions.
But to remain competitive as an economy, we must take steps towards decoupling growth from emissions. That means, if we want to grow, we must decouple that from higher emissions. We must find a way of growing without the concomitant higher emissions that growth brings.
As we move towards a low-carbon future, businesses and economies that remain emissions intensive relative to their competitors will become less attractive. So, while there are costs in decarbonisation now, it is an investment in long-term survival and growth for our companies and also for Singapore’s economy.
We are helping businesses decarbonise by supporting efforts to improve their energy efficiency. For instance, we have enhanced the Resource Efficiency Grant for manufacturing facilities and data centres, by lowering the minimum qualifying criteria to support more emissions reduction projects. We have also launched schemes to support businesses in sustainability reporting.
In addition, we have been working closely with the private sector to develop sectoral roadmaps to decarbonise each sector, seize new opportunities and remain competitive in the low carbon transition. For example, we launched the Singapore Sustainable Air Hub Blueprint last year and, more recently, announced the Marine and Offshore Industry Plan. These will guide us as we work together with companies in our key sectors in the years ahead.
We also want to become an AI hub. The Ministry of Digital Development and Information (MDDI) will say more about how we plan to green our data centres to achieve both economic growth and decarbonisation. The transition also presents new opportunities. As the demand for low-carbon goods and services increases, we can benefit by moving quickly to capture new markets.
One opportunity is offshore wind. We have traditional strengths in marine and offshore. Most of that has been in the oil and gas industries. And now, there is a huge new opportunity in offshore wind.
The global offshore wind market is expected to grow to US$126 billion per annum by 2030. With the support of Enterprise Singapore, Singapore companies in the oil and gas sector are already finding success in pivoting towards providing critical products and services across the offshore wind value chain. Cyan Renewables is a new local company set up in 2022. It has now grown to become one of the largest offshore wind support vessel owners globally, supporting clients across Asia Pacific and Europe.
There will also be new opportunities in resource efficiency and circularity. For example, we are supporting research to explore the use of captured carbon dioxide to produce building materials. Singapore is also one of the world’s leading producers today of sustainable aviation fuels.
While we have a broad suite of plans to get ourselves to net-zero, keeping global warming below 1.5°C will depend on other countries doing their part. We emit 0.1% of the world’s global emissions but we are affected by 100% of the emissions. The transition will not be straightforward and is likely to be messy and uneven. The reality is that we, as a global community, will make progress but may not collectively meet the 1.5°C goal.
As a low-lying island nation, we must therefore prepare for the reality of rising sea levels. We are starting now and expect this will require something in the order of $100 billion in the coming decades. We are putting aside $5 billion in this Budget to top-up the Coastal and Flood Protection Fund. The Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment will say more about adaptations to rising urban heat, disruptions to food supplies and other impacts, which will be needed too.
Mr Chairman, over our 60 years of Independence, we have always placed emphasis on a clean and green environment even as we developed and grew. With climate change, this challenge has now taken on a global dimension. Nature is setting the timeline.
Sir, we are neither climate zealots nor climate sceptics; we are climate realists. We cannot be sure what other countries will or will not do. But we will secure Singapore’s future, by doing our part to reduce emissions, by partnering our households and businesses in this transition, by taking steps to protect us from the effects of climate change, so that Singapore remains a sustainable, liveable and thriving country for all our citizens, ready to grasp the new opportunities in a low-carbon world. So, let us all work together and travel this journey together. [Applause.]
The Chairman: Are there any clarifications for Senior Minister Teo? Mr Dennis Tan.
Mr Dennis Tan Lip Fong: I thank the Senior Minister Teo for his update to the House. Sir, I have three clarifications. I am not so sure whether these clarifications will be answered by the Senior Minister Teo, but I will leave him to explain.
Regarding the cut that I just delivered on the regulations for AI, I heard the Senior Minister Teo referring to MDDI. Is MDDI going to reply to my cut on carbon emissions regulations for AI? That is one.
In my Budget debate speech. I also asked about the concern that I have after Terminal 5 opens, when our Changi Airport flights may increase quite considerably and which will lead to an increase in aviation emissions. Yes, the Senior Minister Teo mentioned about the 1% sustainable aviation fuels. But of course, compared to some other places, for example, I believe, Heathrow, I think it is about 10%, if I am not wrong. Actually, I am just wondering, is the Senior Minister going to address that question I have? Essentially, it is how will our sustainable air hub blueprint be stepped up in the next few years to mitigate the likely increase in aviation emissions after Terminal 5 opens? That is my second clarification.
My third clarification, where in my Budget debate speech, I sought the Government’s update on the green transition or the transition of our petrochemicals industry. Where do we stand now in our journey, especially in light of the sale of the Shell assets in Jurong Island and Tuas last year? Related to this is actually about the manpower transition for our workers in the petrochemical industry, but I am not sure whether the Ministry of Manpower will be dealing with this.
Mr Teo Chee Hean: Yes, indeed, Minister Chee will take the Member’s questions on Terminal 5 and sustainable aviation fuels in the COS. And also, for AI, MDDI will take that up with the Member.
On industrial sectors and how we approach that, there has been a plan on what we intend to do there. And what our intention is, is to make sure that our petrochemical plants in Singapore always are in the top quartile of emissions efficiency. They are not all there today, but that is the trajectory on which we are moving. And as I mentioned, we are not just talking about the traditional petrochemical plants anymore. We actually have one of the largest, if not, the largest sustainable aviation fuel facilities in the world in Singapore, which has recently expanded as well.
So, we are a serious player in the sustainable aviation fuels area, but we must also understand that the pace at which we proceed should be aligned with the pace which the global players proceed and which our regional partners or competitors proceed, and we should not be too out of line with what they do.
On manpower transition, I will also leave that to the Ministry of Trade and Industry when they deal with that particular industrial sector.
Prime Minister’s Office
28 February 2025
https://sprs.parl.gov.sg/search/#/sprs3topic?reportid=budget-2576
The Minister for Transport (Mr Chee Hong Tat): Madam, Mr Dennis Tan raised concerns that building T5 would result in more flights and higher aviation emissions. As a member state of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and International Maritime Organization (IMO), Singapore is committed to contributing towards ICAO and IMO’s global ambition of achieving net-zero targets by or around 2050.
The United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change sets the global reporting requirements for greenhouse gas inventories. Emissions from international aviation and maritime do not accrue to national greenhouse gas inventories. Singapore complies with this.
Likewise, there is no benefit for Changi to move too far ahead of other airports when it comes to adoption of sustainable aviation fuel. At last year’s COS debate, I explained why we will start with a 1% target in 2026 to spur investments in sustainable aviation fuel production capacity and increase this over time to 3% to 5% by 2030, subject to global developments and the wider availability and adoption of sustainable aviation fuel.
I believe this is a pragmatic approach, because the cost of sustainable aviation fuel is currently much higher than conventional jet fuel, and we need to strike a balance between sustainability and competitiveness. Several countries, including India, Indonesia and the Republic of Korea, have also adopted a 1% initial target before ramping up in subsequent years. The UK started with a 2% sustainable aviation fuel mandate in 2025 and not 10%, as what Mr Tan said.
Our approach is to enable our aviation sector to grow and improve environmental sustainability concurrently. We launched the Sustainable Air Hub Blueprint last year, which sets out Singapore’s medium and long-term goals for international and domestic emissions, and our plans to achieve them with stakeholders across the airport, airline and air traffic management domains.
Our air hub is a source of many good jobs for Singaporeans and a key enabler for many other sectors in our economy, such as manufacturing, professional services and tourism. So, I hope Mr Dennis Tan is not suggesting that we should forgo building T5, as that would bring more flights to Singapore. Madam, if our air hub is not competitive, planes will still fly, but they just bypass Changi. How is that good for Singapore and Singaporeans? This Government cares about environmental sustainability, but we also care about the well-being of our people, our workers and our businesses. As Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean said, we are climate realists, not climate zealots.
While our air hub is well-placed to ride the winds of growth, competition is intensifying. We are mindful about rising costs faced by aviation stakeholders. The Government is committed to working with the aviation industry to improve our service levels, raise productivity and reduce operating costs where possible. If we achieve cost savings, we will share these with our industry partners.
One of the biggest advantages that Singapore has today over many competitors is our ability to work as one aviation ecosystem and the close tripartite relationship between companies, unions and the Government. We must continue to leverage on this as we look at ways to enhance Changi’s air hub competitiveness.
The Chairman: Mr Dennis Tan.
Mr Dennis Tan Lip Fong: I thank Minister Chee and Senior Parliamentary Secretary Baey for their answers to the issues I have raised. I would like to assure the Minister that, as a Singaporean, I would also hope that our T5 plans will succeed in ensuring that Singapore can remain as a global air hub and a regional air hub, and I assure the Minister of that.
I think the Minister may have misunderstood the spirit or the thrust of my question in my Budget debate speech. Basically, in essence, I was asking how will we step up in the next few years to mitigate any increase in the aviation emissions arising from the opening of T5 with the increase in the number of flights.
And I just want to make a clarification regarding what I said about Heathrow. Sir, Heathrow has set a target to hit 11% sustainable air fuel by 2030, not now. I was not talking about now, but it is 11%. I did say 10% but I could have made a mistake mixing it up with the UK government’s mandate for sustainable aviation fuel to hit the target of 10% by 2030.
Likewise, I think there are also other countries like Japan which is also aiming for 10% by 2030. So, I do hope and I would support Singapore’s effort to continue for its mitigation efforts to deal with the aviation emissions even as we expand our airport.
Mr Chee Hong Tat: Mr Chairman, I first want to thank Mr Tan for his clarification and for stating clearly his position that he supports the development of T5 and for our air hub at Changi to remain competitive. So, I wanted to thank Mr Tan for that indeed because the competitiveness of our air hub is one of the goals. But as I mentioned in my speech, we also want to make sure that we grow in a sustainable manner. So, both objectives are important. And for the second one on sustainability, we will pay attention to a few aspects. Of course, the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel is one. We will look at whether we can ramp up our adoption, moving in tandem with global developments and the availability of supply, because that is one constraint that affects many airlines at the moment.
New investments in production capacity will be needed to be able to increase supply, then to be able to support higher levels of sustainable aviation fuel adoption.
But besides sustainable aviation fuel, we also want to look at how we design the airport – and T5 will incorporate this – to be an environmentally sustainable airport. So, the way the airport operates, both the air side operations, and also on the passenger side, how we use energy efficiency measures to reduce energy consumption, to be able to maximise our usage of renewable energy, and also one other aspect which we are looking at is to use technology to improve air traffic management, because if you can reduce the time that the planes are circling and waiting up in the skies, and you can, through that process, reduce fuel consumption, I think that is also another way to be able to help businesses to save cost and reduce carbon emissions.
Ministry of Transport
5 March 2025
https://sprs.parl.gov.sg/search/#/sprs3topic?reportid=budget-2604
Office of the Leader of the Opposition 